- Tony Stewart (#20 Chevy - Joe Gibbs Racing) - Now that USC finally lost, Stewart has the longest #1 streak going. To my unofficial count, Smoke ranked at the top in the final 19 installments of KACSPORTS Race Championship Series standings. The case for Tony repeating this year is that his entire crew returns intact, and there are not too many teams that can say that going into this year. The argument against repeating is somewhat stronger. For openers, drivers simply don’t repeat these days, and being the ‘defending champion’ carries addition burden. Also Stewart has been prone to slow starts to seasons, although he has to be considered THE favorite for Daytona since he dominated 355 of the 360 laps run there last year, too bad the five he didn’t happened to be the end of the 2005 Daytona. Already a ‘lone wolf’, Stewart won’t have any veterans to rely on in the Joe Gibbs camp with Bobby LaBonte. And then there is Stewart?’ off-season moonlighter driving the midget cars, which got him banged up a few weeks back. Also, the media talked about the ‘improved, more likable Stewart’ while he dominated races for the final two-thirds of 2005. These are probably the same people who talked about Terrell Owens being a changed man when the Eagles won nine games in a row. Trust ms, a couple bad beats at Bristol and Martinsville and the likes of David Poole, Lee Spencer, and Jerry Bonkowski will be clutching their tape recorders while running for dear life. That said, there is no question who the best driver in 2005 was, so Stewart has to open this season on top. Also, early reports have the Chevy’s running especially strong in the off-season, further cementing my choice.
- Jimmie Johnson (#48 Chevy -Hendrick) - Can we officially give him the Phil Mickelson-like title of ‘Best Driver Never to Have Won a Title’. But considering the #48 has finished in the top-five all four seasons, It’s only going to be a matter of time. A threat to win at almost any track, Johnson is a stone-cold lock in Charlotte and would also be one in Martinsville if not for teammate Jeff Gordon.
- Greg Biffle (#16 Ford -Roush) - The defining moment in Greg Biffle’s career in my opinion is when he called ‘his shot’ during practice at California Speedway when he told a national television audience (or what audience who bothers to watch practice) that although he qualified fifth, that he would be in the lead by the end of Lap 5. Well Biffle was wrong, he took the lead on Lap 4 en route to an easy victory, and by mid-June had five trips to Victory Lane on his resume. A week later Biffle took over the points lead and told everyone that he was glad to be on top of the standings, even if it’s just for one week. Last time I checked NASCAR does not award a big trophy to the driver with the most points after 16 weeks. It wasn’t like Biffle was awful after that point, just not nearly as dominating. Still, Biffle has established himself as a top driver and perhaps the bunch of a very powerful Roush juggernaut. The only concern may be a period of adjustment with the new Ford Fusions being driven this year. Like most Roush drivers, Biffle does his best work on the vast array of 1 ½ to 2 mile tracks on the circuit, although he also had a race at Bristol in his hip pocket before being a sitting duck late.
- Carl Edwards (#99 Ford-Roush) - Last year at this time, the big worry was whether enough sponsorship could be patched up to allow the #99 to race for the entire schedule. After opening with four races finishing 14 th or better, climaxed by a win, Office Depot probably felt compelled to ink it’s driver at least till the end of the Mayan Calendar. When it was all said and done, Edwards had four wins, including a sweep at Atlanta followed up with a win at fellow cookie-cutter Texas. My biggest concern, he might break his neck doing one of those backflips.
- Matt Kenseth (#17 Ford-Roush) - In a weekend out of town without internet access, I turned on the Chicago 400 just in time to hear a pre-race report that the #17 has been absolutely hooked up in practice all weekend. At that point I checked my TV listings to make sure I wasn’t watching an archive from 2002. Sure enough, Kenseth went on to everything but win the race, and would be as unstoppable as the rest of the Roush entries not named Kurt Busch the rest of the season. The biggest highlight was an absolutely dominating performance at Bristol.
- Mark Martin (#6 Ford -Roush) - Are you sure this guy is only 47??? I’m guessing NASCAR?s decision to finally wean itself from unleaded fuel came about two decades too late for Eye-ore. In most events, Martin does just about everything but win the race. What you will get is a bevy of consistent top-five and top-ten outings. With the departure of Kurt Busch, Martin was talked into staying one more year, but his contract with Viagra is up, meaning one of the more colorful paint schemes on the circuit will be a thing of the past. Wisconsin-ite Todd Kleuver is being groomed to take Martin’s place in the #6 for 2007.
- Kyle Busch (#5 Chevy-Hendrick) - Some previews don’t even have Kyle in the top 20 this year, let alone top 10. Don?t be one of those who make that mistake, as Kyle builds on the momentum of winning two of the final 12 2005 races. Like his brother, Kyle isn’t the most popular with fellow competitors (Kevin Harvick especially). You will also still probably see an above average number of crashes/early exits. Still, Kyle is a driver definitely on the rise and don’t be surprised if he’s mixing it up with teammates Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson in the point standings.
- Jeff Gordon (#24 Chevy-Hendrick) - Ranked way too high in some publications, who still look at him as a bonifide title contender. Gordon will still dominate on the plate tracks, road courses, and Martinsville - which covers eight of the 36 events and will make him worth your while. Despite four wins including the Daytona 500, 2005 was a down year as Gordon only scored 14 top-tens, as opposed to 25 the previous year. On a career note Gordon needs only four wins to pass Dale Earnhardt Sr. on the career victory list, and could well do it on his 35th birthday in August. JG is still a force and will probably be in the Chase, just don’t expect the dominance of a decade ago.
- Jamie McMurray (#26 Ford-Roush) - Just how anxious was Jack Roush to cleanse his hands of Kurt Busch?? Immediately after the season he retired the #97 and re-christened the Crown Royal car with the number #26 for his new driver. McMurray ran solid the last three years for Ganassi, finishing 13th, 11th, and 12th, but never won a race outside of a pinch-hitting performance for Sterling Marlin late in 2002. Much more will be expected in NASCAR’s answer to the Bobby Heenan Family. I have Jamie Mac a half-notch below the other Roush drivers for the time being while he gets used to his new surroundings.
- Ryan Newman (#12 Dodge-Penske) - Great picture of the former Krissie Boyle on page 76 of the Sporting News preview. That alone is almost worth the $7.99 newstand price. Newman is one of the few drivers to have a college degree, but is also not the most popular driver in the garage, which makes it hard in the department of having friends on the race track. The jury is also out on whether Newman will get along with Kurt Busch any better than Rusty Wallace. I say there-s a good chance, Newman and Rusty were way too different personalities. The plus is Newman always qualifies well, the negatives are the Dodges were awful last year, and that Newman pushes the envelope too much, resulting in more trips to the garage than victory lane.
- Dale Earnhardt Jr. (#8 Chevy-DEI) - The popular consensus is that Junior’s 2005 season was a mere aberration, and that he will bounce back and be a title contender this year. I’m not sold since there are more quality drivers than ever and just bouncing back is easier said than done. Junior could open the season by dominating Daytona for the umpteenth time, but the real test on whether Earnhardt is truly back will come in subsequent races at California, Las Vegas, and Atlanta, where the #8 struggled mightily last year. If Junior stinks up again, moving on to the Goodwrench #3 at RCR may be sooner rather than later.
- Kurt Busch (#2 Dodge-Penske) - We know present the five-foot wiener; let’s just say that Oscar Meyer may had been the most fitting associate sponsorship in the history of the sport. But give the man his due, in just five years Busch has made himself quite a resume, 14 wins, 4 wins at Bristol, and a season championship. Of course he will let local law enforcement know that during traffic stops ? there are a lot of fans who wished he got tasered that night. Post blow-up, I expect Busch to be on his best behavior this year, especially in the outset as he tries to make piece with a new team. Busch does take a hit in the rankings since going from Ford to Dodge, not to mention Roush to Penske, will have an adjustment period. Busch’s best track will remain Bristol, especially considering the success Rusty Wallace had in that car in the course of his career.
- Brian Vickers (#25 Chevy-Hendrick) - This is about where I ranked Greg Biffle at this time last year, and in his third year Vickers has similar breakout potential. He will win on an intermediate track sooner rather than later, my guess is that first win will be at Texas where he can become about the 90th different winner in as many races there. The potential pitfalls is that this Vick is much like the NFL’s Vick, he could do very well, but crashes out early way too often. There’s also the history of the Hendrick stable, where at least one of it’s entries fails to keep pace with the others.
- Elliott Sadler (#38 Ford-Yates) - One of the most overrated drivers in the sport in about the last five years, Sadler scored only one top-five for the entire year. Sadler still has to be considered as a top-ten contender, especially if he can actually find a crew chief he’s comfortable with, and RYR seems to make changes with that about every five weeks.
- Martin Truex Jr. (#1 Chevy-DEI) - Two-time Busch Series champion leads an impressive array of rookie drivers in 2006. Truex has shown his talent on a vast array of venues, including plate tracks and road courses. Looking like a virtual clone of Dale Jr., the change in teammates will bode well for both drivers. His cheap salary should make him essential in salary-cap type games.
- Kasey Kahne (#9 Dodge-Evernham) - There were races, or portions of races, in which Kahne seemed to dominate in his second year, including his first win at Richmond. However that was far outnumbered by a number of early exits. In Year 3, Kahne is going to be expected to show the form he had in Year 1, where he barely missed the Chase.
- Denny Hamlin (#11 Chevy-Joe Gibbs Racing) - A season-long search for a quality driver for high profile sponsor Federal Express came to an end with Hamlin scoring several consecutive strong runs in late season races. The case against Hamlin is that he didn’t do all that well in the Busch Series. Having Tony Stewart for a teammate won’t hurt, look for Hamlin to potentially score a win before the year is out.
- Kevin Harvick (#29 Chevy-RCR) - When the green flag falls on the second week of the season, it will mark the beginning of the sixth year of Harvick inheriting one of the sport’s more storied rides. If you ask me however, this bodes to be a lame duck year for Harvick, who has not done particularly well the last two years and whose contract is up at the end of the year. Meanwhile new make Toyota is looking for a marquee driver for it’s roster in 2007 and Harvick would seem to fit the bill, possibly with him owning the team. Best bets for Harvick to do well include plate tracks, short tracks, and road courses.
- Jeremy Mayfield (#19 Dodge-Evernham) - Has done well to sneak into the Chase the last two years, but that’s about as good as it’s ever going to get for Jeremy. His cars usually have the horsepower to do well on the intermediate tracks, but don’t look for title contention.
- Joe Nemechek (#01 Chevy-MB2) - Who I refer to as the classic ‘mid-major’ driver, who doesn’t race for one of the big boys, but has quality equipment, including motors supplied by Hendrick. There are venues where Nemechek dominates, including Michigan where he was the class of the field last August. Often referred to as a ‘bad-luck’ driver, although I think that’s a product of a driver pushing the envelope in search of a win more than just a top-ten finish. Atlanta, Kansas, California, and Daytona, are other tracks where ‘G.I Joe’ is a factor.
- Casey Mears (#42 Dodge-Ganassi) - The prevailing thought is that Mears will be a top 10-15 driver inheriting the #42 car’s ‘first-string’ equipment. Mears did run well at the end of last year but I don’t see him being that good, as his upside is limited. Mears will excel at some of the bigger tracks and his best chance to win is on a road course, where the Ganassi team has fuel mileage down to a science.
- Reed Sorenson (#41 Dodge-Ganassi) - How young is Sorenson??? So much so that per NASCAR rules he’s not allowed to run the Coors-sponsored #40. Anyone who watched the Busch Series on a consistent basis last year will know that Sorenson has a ton of driving ability. Factor that with him being in a very good ride and you have who I think will be one of the better drivers in this year’s rookie crop.
- Jeff Burton (#31 Chevy-RCR) - If this was five years ago, Burton would be near the top of this list, now Burton seems closer to eventually joining his older brother on NASCAR’s scrap heap. The fact that Burton hasn’t done much better than Robby Gordon while his replacement in the #99 became an instant title contender doesn’t speak well for the direction Burton’s career is going, although he still has a few years to turn it around.
- Dale Jarrett (#88 Ford-RYR) - Another one whose best days were before the turn of the century. He did win at Talladega last fall, but that was the case of someone being in the right place at the right time in a plate race. Jarrett is one of the least likely to kill you with an early wreck, and has been a top-15 driver the last two years. Still DJ will be hard pressed to match that as the soon-to-be 50 year-old seems headed towards retirement either at the end of this year or 2007 at the very latest.
- J.J. Yeley (#18 Chevy-Joe Gibbs Racing) – Hasn’t had the success of teammate Denny Hamlin in limited Cup runs, and was referred to as a ‘dirt track racer’ by Brendan Gaughan after an early race incident at California on Labor Day 2004. Still Yeley now has a ride with one of the big boys while Gaughan is back in the Truck Series, which isn’t too much above the dirt track circuit, so who’s laughing now. Even with the limited experience, I like Yeley’s chances of doing at least as good as Bobby LaBonte did in this ride last year.
- David Stremme (#40 Dodge-Ganassi) - Has done well in various series over the past few years, and has a chance to do well in the Ganassi stable. However he’s also one of those who rival drivers often hiss at after accidents. I think Stremme has at least a 50-50 chance to have a decent season, although there may be a lot of work ahead in the fab shop.
- Bobby LaBonte (#43 Dodge-Petty Enterprises) - Yet another member of the all-2000 team, I feel LaBonte picked a good time to end his longtime relationship with Joe Gibbs racing. On the other end, the #43 car gets one of it’s better drivers in quite a while, in fact the first former champion since the King himself. The Petty cars also improved late last year after they started getting their engines form the Ray Evernham camp. For the first time in recent memory, the #43 looks like it will be a factor in some races. LaBonte historically makes the most noise at tracks such as Atlanta and Charlotte, as well as the paperclip short-track at Martinsville.
- Ken Schrader (#21 Ford - Wood Bros.) - While other veteran drivers talk retirement or at least scaling back, Schrader will be racing until they literally rip off his firesuit and carry him out in a box. But even at age 50, don’t discount Schrader making an impact this year. The #21 had a top-20 team for much of last season with Ricky Rudd at the controls, and Schrader wasn’t even a pushover driver for the low-budget Bam team the last two years. This will probably be a one year deal with Jon Wood taking over in the near future. Will Schrader win his first race since 1990??? Probably not, but if you’re looking for a reliable ‘C’ list driver Schrader won’t hurt you.
- Scott Riggs (#10 Dodge - Evernham) - To the novice, it will appear that nothing has changed with Riggs, he will still be driving the #10 Valvoline car - but it will now be an Evernham Dodge. The case for Riggs this year is that he moves up to a premiere team with two decent teammates (Kahne/Mayfield). The case against Riggs is that he’s never done well for a sustained amount of time and he may end-up as a third-string Research and Development type for the Evernham team. The company line from the team is that isn’t the case and all three teams will be treated the same.
- Sterling Marlin (#14 Chevy – MB2) - Marlin has a tradition of starting off with a bang with new rides, and his last honeymoon at Ganassi lasted two years before breaking his neck in a crash at Kansas, most forget that Marlin led the point standings for most of 2002, but Sterling has fallen far since then. Marlin will be driving Scott Riggs old #10 ride. Like I said, Sterling often starts with a bang, and could be in the mix in the Daytona 500, a race that Riggs did well in last year.
- Clint Bowyer (#07 Chevrolet - RCR) - Bowyer finished second to Martin Truex in the Busch Series last year, and now replaces Dave Blaney in RCR?s third-tier ride. I look at Bowyer as a poor man’s Kevin Harvick, who should do some of his best work on the short tracks. I do see a moderate upside here and at least a slight improvement from Blaney’s results.
- Michael Waltrip (#55 Dodge - Bill Davis Racing) - Another driver where at first glance would appear to be in the same ride, as longtime sponsor NAPA comes along in the deal. It is believed that this will be a one-year deal for Waltrip before he starts up his own team with Toyota. Could still perform on the plate tracks, but expect a dropoff, not that last year was even great shakes. Also remember Bill Davis has gotten no factory support from Dodge since pissing off the manufacturer a few years back.
- Robby Gordon (#7 Chevrolet - Robby Gordon) - The Bode Miller of his sport, Gordon found rough sledding in his first year running his own team. #7 was good in qualifying and ran good laps, but seemingly was never able to finish a race. Gordon had a nice final month after finally deciding to run DEI engines. Gordon does get consideration considering the road course races give him two opportunities a year to truly contend.
- Jeff Green (#66 Chevrolet - Haas Motorsports) - With the Net Zero sponsorship achieving zero results, the car number now switches to the year Best Buy went in business. Mike Bliss got some respectable finishes at times last year, and Green is good for a top 10-15 run about once every six weeks.
- Kyle Petty (#45 Dodge - Petty Enterprises) - Again, a C or even D list driver who won’t kill you. Petty managed to finish in the top 30 in the final 11 events of last season and even pulled off a top ten during that time, and seems to benefit some from the Evernham engines now in the Petty camp.
- Travis Kvapil (#32 Dodge - PPI) - Bobby Hamilton Jr. was a major disappointment in one year on the Cup circuit, and wasn’t a big favorite in the garage area neither. He could find himself disappearing from the scene quicker than you can say Casey Atwood. Kvapil I think is a more reliable driver who at least will keep this team in the top 35 in points. Kvapil will do best on some of the shorter tracks such as Martinsville, where Ricky Craven won in this car a few years back.
- Terry LaBonte/Tony Raines (#96 Chevrolet - HOF Racing) - The inaugural season for the Roger Staubach/Troy Aikman backed team will feature a car with a paint scheme that alarmingly looks like the Seattle Seahawks could sponsor it. By the way, they came up with #96 by multiplying Staubach and Aikman’s uniform numbers (12 X 8). If you’re looking for part-time individual specialists, Texas Terry will drive the first five races, where he can fall back on the past Champions provisional, before giving way to Raines. LaBonte will also start the two road course events in the #96 and will also do a part-time schedule with Hendrick Motorsports as well.
- Dave Blaney (#22 Dodge - Bill Davis Racing) - Give Dave Blaney credit for something, he keeps managing to find work in the Cup Circuit. Just four years ago this car won the Daytona 500. Last year Scott Wimmer made it famous for pirouetting on the Daytona infield. Again, stay away from Bill Davis cars as that outfit is locking horns with Dodge over allegedly handing over information to Toyota, in a District Court or a Judge Alex show near you.
- Brent Sherman (#49 Dodge - BAM) - In a recent interview, Sherman noted that he would probably ?not? win the Daytona 500. I’ll put a buck on him, if Derricke Cope can win the Great American Crapshoot anyone can. Very little is known about Sherman, except that he did a stint in the Air Force, did well in ARCA a few years back, and was known for staying out of trouble in the Busch Series. This maybe a slight downgrade from Ken Schrader, but it appears the #49 will still be halfway respectable with at least solid sponsorship.
- Scott Wimmer (#4 Chevrolet - Morgan McClure) - The good news, Scott Wimmer found another job on the Cup Circuit. The bad news, Scott Wimmer found another job on the Cup Circuit, becoming seemingly the 98th driver to be in the #4 just this decade. Best Case Scenario: Wimmer actually stays in the car the entire season while the Wausau Daily Herald chronicles every step of his courageous battle to remain in the top-35. Worst Case Scenario: Wimmer gets fired after six weeks, no, actually that might be the best case scenario for Wimmer.
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